Dec-12 MTD result

December was a bumper month again with a +12.11% returns. Year end closed on a high. Activity was subdued since before Christmas Eve.

Added more money to trading portfolio.

Annualised return	67.89%
Annualised Standard Deviation	23.18%

Nov-12 MTD results

MTD P&L : +1.31%

Seems like I am falling pretty far off my target 200% returns a year.

However I have just started trading FX again and could take advantage of the leverage offered by brokers. Hopefully this creates a more diversified portfolio and smoother P&L especially by month ends.

Forex trades

I have stayed away for the past couple of months and started developing models again for Forex. It seems like I have found a model which works for certain currencies that are volatile enough to make profits. 

Been keeping this to myself and trading it in a separate account. Plan to trade for a couple of month and then introduce/raise money for this strategy. 2 week returns are at 9%

Month end effect

Today is month end again. Coupled with a Friday. Trades have gone against me for the past 3 days, accumulating to all my profits for the month.

Perhaps the strategy should incorporate cutting positions before month end and putting back on at month end.

Deluge of Trades

Year end coming, there are lots of signal from my models. However I am wary of year end and thus will be exercising caution towards this festive period.

October returns

Again, on close to month end, 1 day before and on the day itself, my P&L made a - 5% jump

Unbelievable.

Well it is middle of November now, and P&L have gone down again. Been holding to 3 positions close to 3 months now. Expecting profits soon or I will be out.

AUDUSD 15th-Oct

Buy AUDUSD 1.024

Sell when hit 1.028/1.03. Double up and go short as well.

Monthly Returns September 2012

P&L -3.8%
Dollar  $-759

Should have had a positive month if I actually followed the model. Would have made 3 more trades in J, Index, SvM.

I will need to monitor more diligently.

Returns for Aug 2012

MTD returns are 9.41%

Leverage used is 5 times.

EUR/USD

Long EUR/USD at 1.2361

Limit 1.242
Stop 1.229

Time frame 1 day

Closed out at -40 pips.

Time to stop trading support-resistance strategies. Doesnt really work.

No more forex trades until the automated strategies are backtested and approved.

Forex Strategy Review

I have backtested so many strategies lately, However the conclusion is, they made alot of money back from 2005 -2010.

The strategy returns are flat from 2011 onwards. I am really curious to why this happened.

Possibly more money employed by hedge funds/prop desk, but given the current economy, i would have thought it would be the other way round.

AUD/USD

Sold AUD/USD 1.05289. Seems like a bearish pin is developing.

Closed at AUD/USD 1.0523.

I realise my problem. I need to let profits hit the targets and losses to hit the target too

Must define a more complete system which covers my entry and exit targets so I do not fiddle with it.

USD/JPY enter long

Bought USD/JPY 78.80

Looking to hold this and see how it goes.

Closed at 78.407 for a lost of 40 pips.

USD/JPY entered long

Long USD/JPY at 78.374. Looking to exit at 78.67.

However, this one if it breaks might go up quite a fair bit.

Results
Closed at 78.57.

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

Short EUR/USD    1.2342

Short EUR/JPY       96.72

Both trades broke their inside day bars. If it reverses by my stop loss, then will enter long trade.

Results:
Closed EUR/USD at 1.2329
Closed EUR/JPY at 96.658

Closed a majority of positions and focusing back on FX

Closed most of the positions. Left 2 open positions which roughly cancels out each other.

Current MTD P&L = $2,200 which is 11% of capital

Read some iInteresting strategy in using Price action to generate signals.

Read a few papers on momentum returns against the cross-sectional of all currencies instead of time-series. This strategy buys the currency which gained the most in the previous month and short the one which lost the most. More probably I believe, a portfolio needs to be constructed and properly weighted for this to yield any results.

Yet to do backtesting on this.

In some papers it seems that after Year 2000, it is hard to use momentum and filter based strategies to gain profits in foreign exchange based on time-series analysis of each currency.

Model vs Profit

Sometimes traders are very driven by P&L. especially if they are trying to catch up on their performance.

I should have kept my positions as they are running into deep profit, but in order to cash out on my P&L and catch up on last months negative performance, i closed the position.

I should perhaps keep to the model...and try distracting myself from fiddling with the trades.

Simple basic strategy

Momentum based on 5-day high low on FX especially on commodities currencies.

Once it breaks through the 5-day high - BUY
Once it breaks through the 5-day low - SELL

Take profit/loss when necessary.

4th August 2012 Weekly Recap

Current profit $1,100 roughly 5%

Money made on other strategies rather than on FX. Strategy 1 and 2 would have made money if followed througgh as well but I didnt have the confidence since last month. I have to stick to the models and be less emotional and affected.

Pairs trading

Did some pairs trading of equities and stock indices.

Currently +ve for the month. Hoping that it will continue. Reversals rather than momentum

July MTD

Did not have much time for trading. Difficult environment. Strategy 2 was basically losing money in all trades. Did not put on any strategy 1 trades

Down -1.31% for July 2012. Time to buck up.

New investments into the fund

There will be an investor interesting in investing in this little venture.

The investor has decided to put in SGD$10,000.

Another close person will put in $7,000.

This will make the funds under management to be $20,000 as of the 1st of July 2012.

MTD returns +6.6% .
YTD returns 22.6%
Dollar return +680
Missed out on opportunities due to not letting profit runs

Weekly recap

A bit of a volatile week. profits are down to $624. Abit less than 21%

Sitting on the sidelines

Market is not moving much after Monday. Sitting on the sidelines for now. Models are pretty quiet. A welcomed break I supposed before the storm in Greece.

Daily update

MTd up 5%. Continuing with backtesting of intra day trading strategies.

Current Week to date and MTD figures

+3.3%

Current week to date

-1.44% for now.

No trades at the moment

-.30% for the day.

I did some extra trades without the model

Made $110 just now and gave back $30 due to my itchy fingers. Had nothing to do, but adrenaline was pumping through me. So I gave back 1%. Crap. will NEVER do this again.

Current P&L $480.

MTD profit is 16%.

Lets hope this keeps up.

Lacking of Discipline..FOLLOW the model

I missed out on trades late Tuesday and Wednesday due to trying to put in better orders in the market.

The signals were generated however I missed the entries and decided to enter later on at a better price but it did not come back. Potentially missed out on 7-8% of profit.

Current P&L is $400. Current MTD is 13.3%

Lets hope this month ends well. I have put in all the orders and we shall take note of how month end will end. Will there be manipulation or profit taking?

Strategies that only work on certain open and close

I have found that some strategies are very sensitive to the data that you use to back test. For examples using the close/open to determine your entry. Somehow for some of the strategies I backtest, it sorts of acts as a filter for better "quality" trades.

I am hesitant to believe so. I guess back to more back-testing.

Zero trades today.

Stumbling blocks in new strategies.

The couple of strategies that I have been testing out, has given me very high winning ratios.. However when it goes against you, the drawdown is quite huge thus making the gains negligible... Making it feel like it's a random.. Possibly I might start using a few indicators to see if it makes sense to trade that way..Never used indicators before. Never really get to do any backtesting given all those chart drawings seem so subjective. I have recently googled and found an interesting character in TheRumpledOne. However I can testify that, TheRumpledOne and his strategies, never did work out well. Although, I must add that he does preach some common sense and it will be useful to traders.. He sounded very much like my previous boss in a way.. But all in all, the strategies doesn't work. I have recently talked to someone and he testifies that you can actually pay and buy profitable EAs for metatrader. But they cost a few grand each.. Maybe once I get to a certain size, I will invest and backtest a few.

Week recap - 21st May - 25th May

Volatile week. Weekly Profit + 3.1% Roughly $92.50

Current MTD +11.81%

On a large drawdown day

The unrealised P&L went as wide as -10% capital for a period of 8 hours.

Unfortunately I could not resisting to intervene when the P&L came back to -1%. I chickened out and close the positions.

As this is a testing period for this strategy, I should have just let the model run with minimum intervention as the final goal is an automated trading strategy.

Current P&L is 318.28/3,000 standing at 10.6%.

Always follow the model

I went out for dinner with a friend and I forgot to put in my orders before I left. Missed out of 5% profit. The capital now is down to 3,350. Lost in an EUR/GBP trade. Second time I lost in this pair. Time to check the backtesting again.

Journey to a million dollars starts with 3,000 dollars.

I have decided to document my journey on FX trading to aim for a million dollars.

I started actively trading FX on 1st May 2012. At that time my account had 3,000.

As of today 23rd May 2012 the account is standing on 3,370 dollars.

Currently I am engaged in only 1 strategy of trading FX. There is another couple of strategy under development and backtesting.

Thus my May 2012 MTD P&L is 12.3%. Current leverage used is roughly 3 times.

As you can see I am still abit cautious about my leverage as I am still testing out this strategy after running the backtesting.

The target is to reach 1-2% profit a day consistently.

I believe diversification is the way to go with totally uncorrelated strategies and possibly different asset classes once the capital grows to a certain amount.

For now I will stick to FX trading.